

*************     OPEN LOG FILE     ************

log using "E:\Zarit Project\Regional Convergence.Krause & Zarit.HVDAnalysis12262015.smcl" 



*************     DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS, I: OLS WITH NEWEY-WEST VCV ESTIMATION   ******************




******** OPEN DATABASE ****************

use "E:\Zarit Project\Regional Convergence.Krause & Zarit.06-08-2015.Master Database.dta", clear 


set more off


tsset state_fips year, yearly



preserve

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




cor klarnerranney hvd if year>1980 & nonsouth==1

cor klarnerranney hvd if year>1980 & nonsouth==0

cor klarnerranney hvd if year>1980 & newsouth==1

cor klarnerranney hvd if year>1980 & oldsouth==1


*** I.A: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010): BIVARIATE DYNAMIC PANEL ARDL(4,3)--ECM REGRESSION MODELS OF STATE REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME [real_pc_inc_ann] /// 
///       & STATE hvd INDEX FOR PARTISAN COMPETITION IN LEGISLATURE/REPRESENTATIVE ASSEMBLIES [hvd] WITH TWO-WAY FIXED EFFECTS [STATE AND TIME UNIT EFFECTS]  ***




// (4,3)  MODEL

******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



// (4,3)  MODEL



*** I.C: NON-SOUTHERN STATES (N = 35): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified   i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1

estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified   i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.hvd = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom   d.hvd +  l.d.hvd +  l2.d.hvd



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.hvd]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 



sum hvd   if  real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF hvd ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.hvd] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*91.25554  -  (_b[l.hvd] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*65.40031 



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1
estat ic


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==1, lag(5) force



predict hvdhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==1

* 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.hvd = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.hvd = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.hvd]




sum real_pc_inc_ann  hvd  if hvdhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON hvd:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.hvd])*17661.71   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.hvd])*13630.93



restore

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preserve


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// (4,3)  MODEL



*** II.A: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***

***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




// (4,3)  MODEL




*** II.C: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==0



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.hvd = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.hvd +  l.d.hvd +  l2.d.hvd 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.hvd]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 


sum hvd real_pc_inc_ann  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & nonsouth==0, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF hvd ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.hvd] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*83.33333  -  (_b[l.hvd]  / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*46.58065 





******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0
estat ic



******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(5) force

predict hvdhatallpost if year>1980 & nonsouth==0


*
 
* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.hvd = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY) *

test l.hvd = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.hvd]



sum real_pc_inc_ann  if hvdhatallpost !=. & year > 1980 & nonsouth==0, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON hvd:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.hvd])*15294.64   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.hvd])*11966



restore 


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preserve







//(4,3)  MODEL




*** III.A: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 -2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
**


//(4,3)  MODEL




*** III.C: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & newsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.hvd = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.hvd +  l.d.hvd  +  l2.d.hvd 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.hvd]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 




sum hvd  if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & newsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF hvd ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.hvd] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*85.82796   -  (_b[l.hvd] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*56.68817



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1
estat ic



******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & newsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict hvdhatallpost if year>1980 & newsouth==1



* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.hvd = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.hvd = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.hvd]



sum  real_pc_inc_ann    if hvdhatallpost!=. & year>1980 & newsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON hvd:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.hvd])*16574.21   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.hvd])*13297.69   




restore 


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preserve




//(5,4) MODEL




*** IV.A: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




// (5,4)  MODEL



*** IV.C: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): POST-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1981 - 2010) ***


******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.hvd  l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1
estat ic


******INCOME EQUATION*********

newey d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.real_pc_inc_ann l.hvd   l.d.real_pc_inc_ann d.hvd  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.d.hvd  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann l2.d.hvd  l4.d.real_pc_inc_ann l3.d.hvd  l.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.d.csi_perc_cap_outlays l.right_to_work l.d.right_to_work  l.csi_welf_perc_total l.d.csi_welf_perc_total l.nonfarm_persinc l.d.nonfarm_persinc l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict real_pc_inc_annhatallpost if year>1980 & oldsouth==1



* TESTING INCOME ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0 


* TESTING INCOME FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.real_pc_inc_ann = l.hvd = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.hvd +  l.d.hvd +  l2.d.hvd +  l3.d.hvd 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.hvd]/-_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] 


sum hvd   if real_pc_inc_annhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & oldsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  hvd ON real_pc_inc_ann:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF hvd FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD *


nlcom  (_b[l.hvd] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*81.81818  -  (_b[l.hvd] / - _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann])*39.04762



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui reg d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.hvd l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1
estat ic


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

newey d.hvd  l.hvd l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.hvd d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.hvd  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.hvd l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l4.d.hvd l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1  i.state_fips i.year if year >1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(5) force

predict hvdhatallpost if year>1980 & oldsouth==1


* 

* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.hvd = 0


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.hvd = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l3.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.hvd]




sum real_pc_inc_ann   if hvdhatallpost!=. & year > 1980 & oldsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON hvd:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.hvd])* 14367.06   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.hvd])* 11208.2




restore



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log close
